Slugger Deep Dive
The 2026 home run leaders, with every one of their home runs broken down by the conditions it happened in — then scored against today's actual matchup to see how many of those conditions are in play.
Today's matchup fit · Monday, October 26
- Home: 27 HR in 357 PA (7.6%) — 1.6x his vs LHP rate (4.8%)
- 44.4% of his HRs come on the 4-Seam — 11.4pts above how often it's thrown leaguewide
- Sweet spot: 4-Seam from righties — 16 HR (47.1% of that side)
- 65% of his HRs came off pitchers allowing 1.2+ HR/9 — he feasts on vulnerable arms
True HR rate by split (HR / PA)
Handedness
vs RHP
6.9%
34 HR / 496 PA
vs LHP
4.8%
11 HR / 230 PA
Venue
Home
7.6%
27 HR / 357 PA
Away
4.9%
18 HR / 369 PA
Day / Night
Day
5.3%
16 HR / 300 PA
Night
6.8%
29 HR / 426 PA
HRs by pitch type (last column = lean vs league usage)
4-Seam
20 · 44.4%
+11.4
Slider
7 · 15.6%
+0.6
Changeup
4 · 8.9%
-2.1
Sweeper
4 · 8.9%
+1.9
Splitter
4 · 8.9%
+6.9
Curve
2 · 4.4%
-1.6
Best pitch by pitcher hand
vs Righties
4-Seam
16 HR · 47.1% of that side
vs Lefties
4-Seam
4 HR · 36.4% of that side
Opposing pitcher HR/9
Very HR-prone (1.5+ HR/9)
17 · 37.8%
HR-prone (1.2-1.5)
12 · 26.7%
League avg (0.9-1.2)
6 · 13.3%
Stingy (under 0.9)
10 · 22.2%
Pitch velocity
95+ mph
9 · 20%
90-94
14 · 31.1%
85-89
7 · 15.6%
Under 85
15 · 33.3%
Count
Ahead in count
16 · 35.6%
Even count
12 · 26.7%
Behind in count
17 · 37.8%
Ballpark HR factor
Launch pad (108+)
2 · 4.4%
Slight boost (100-107)
4 · 8.9%
Pitcher park (under 100)
39 · 86.7%
Favorite yards: CHC (27 HR, 95 PF) · SEA (2 HR, 92 PF) · STL (2 HR, 97 PF)
45 tracked HR events · avg exit velo 104.1 mph