Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026
% of predicted batters who hit ≥1 HR that day
Total dingers by calendar day (MT)
How many homers came from each predicted score range
Where most of our score predictions fell
Most HRs hit this week + our predicted score
HRs per game played at each venue
Across 1,000 daily matchup predictions over 5 days, batters in our top tiers (ELITE + STRONG) hit a homer 17.4% of the time — and the average HR Score among actual HR hitters was 40 vs 37 across the full slate, a 1.09× lift over baseline.
We correctly faded 93.2% of FADE-tier batters (they did not homer). The biggest signals continue to be batter HR rate, quality of contact, and pitcher HR/9 — exactly the levers our weighted model leans on hardest.