DINGERDECK
MLB HR Matchup Intelligence
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Weekly Recap

THE DINGER REPORT

Jun 1 – Jun 7, 2026

Total HRs
237
across 43 games
Predictions
1000
381 unique batters
ELITE+STRONG Hit Rate
8.3%
batters who actually went yard
Score Lift
1.11×
HR hitters avg 38 vs 34 baseline

HIT RATE BY TIER

% of predicted batters who hit ≥1 HR that day

HRS PER DAY

Total dingers by calendar day (MT)

HRS BY SCORE BAND

How many homers came from each predicted score range

PREDICTION VOLUME BY BAND

Where most of our score predictions fell

🔥 TOP SLUGGERS

Most HRs hit this week + our predicted score

  1. 1
    Hunter Goodman
    COL · avg score 55
    4
  2. 2
    Pete Crow-Armstrong
    CHC · avg score 34
    4
  3. 3
    Casey Schmitt
    SF · avg score 55
    3
  4. 4
    Dillon Dingler
    DET · avg score 55
    3
  5. 5
    Corbin Carroll
    AZ · avg score 48
    3
  6. 6
    Brandon Valenzuela
    TOR · avg score 37
    3
  7. 7
    Willy Adames
    SF · avg score 37
    3
  8. 8
    Brandon Marsh
    PHI · avg score 36
    3
  9. 9
    Heriberto Hernández
    MIA · avg score 36
    3
  10. 10
    Carson Benge
    NYM · avg score 32
    3

🏟 HOTTEST PARKS

HRs per game played at each venue

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

Across 1,000 daily matchup predictions over 4 days, batters in our top tiers (ELITE + STRONG) hit a homer 8.3% of the time — and the average HR Score among actual HR hitters was 38 vs 34 across the full slate, a 1.11× lift over baseline.

We correctly faded 93.1% of FADE-tier batters (they did not homer). The biggest signals continue to be batter HR rate, quality of contact, and pitcher HR/9 — exactly the levers our weighted model leans on hardest.

GO-FORWARD STRATEGY

  • Lean ELITE/STRONG: Hit rate is 8.3% — keep concentrating attention on the top of every slate; that's where the edge lives.
  • Park premium: The week's top park was Tropicana Field (4.33 HR/G). Continue to weight venue HR factor heavily on travel days.
  • Tighten the FADE bucket: With a 93.1% avoid rate, we'll keep the bar high — any FADE that pops triggers a model review next week.
  • More data = sharper model: Every slate we record makes the next report tighter. Reports refresh every Sunday with the prior 7 days of results.