DINGERDECK
MLB HR Matchup Intelligence
Back to CHC @ STL
BATTER
CHC
Carson Kelly
PITCHER
STL
Matthew Liberatore
DINGERDECK MATCHUP
CARSON
KELLY
VS
MATTHEW
LIBERATORE
37AVERAGE
CHC @ STL
0 HR/1 PA
KELLY
HNDRIGHT
HR4/6 vLHP
SLG%.373
Brl/PA%4.4
AVG.257
HIT/G62/77
LIBERATORE
LEFTHND
12/18 vRHBHR
.477SLG%
6.4Brl/PA%
5.18ERA
1.64HR/9
STL PitchingERAWHIPKHHR
SP: Liberatore21st %13th %55th %9th %20th %
Bullpen47th %41st %40th %60th %74th %
Kelly BattingPAH%SLGHR%BB%
L3 vs LIBERATORE3318.2%0.2220.0%18.2%
L3 vs STL Bullpen3327.3%0.2730.0%0.0%
'26 vs LHP9628.1%0.5494.2%14.6%
'26 All Games27522.5%0.3732.2%11.3%

Pitch Arsenal Matchup

Pitcher vs RHB · Batter vs LHP · Bars run from center outward

4-Seam FastballUSE 32%
HR0
BA.266
SLG.313
HH%42%
wOBA.342
HR4
BA.292
SLG.458
HH%42%
wOBA.374
SliderUSE 23%
HR0
BA.205
SLG.295
HH%27%
wOBA.309
HR2
BA.218
SLG.418
HH%47%
wOBA.301
CurveballUSE 17%
HR0
BA.111
SLG.111
HH%22%
wOBA.100
HR4
BA.186
SLG.488
HH%40%
wOBA.299
ChangeupUSE 15%
HR1
BA.316
SLG.526
HH%38%
wOBA.393
HR0
BA.304
SLG.393
HH%32%
wOBA.335
SinkerUSE 9%
HR1
BA.293
SLG.379
HH%36%
wOBA.341
HR1
BA.429
SLG.643
HH%62%
wOBA.522
CutterUSE 4%
HR1
BA.467
SLG.933
HH%69%
wOBA.613
HR1
BA.600
SLG.867
HH%40%
wOBA.641
Split-FingerUSE 1%
HR0
BA.000
SLG.000
HH%100%
wOBA.000
HR0
BA.000
SLG.000
HH%0%
wOBA.000
SweeperUSE 0%
HR1
BA.208
SLG.417
HH%36%
wOBA.263
HR0
BA.1000
SLG.1000
HH%0%
wOBA.900

Current Season HR Splits

HR/PA · HR rate · Green marks a current condition with the stronger rate

CHC batter · STL pitcher
Splits Bar
Batter · 2/30/3 · Pitcher
Splits
Combined−0.8%
Batter HR/PA · %
Split
Pitcher HR/PA · %
2/137 · 1.5%
Home/Home
9/222 · 4.1%
4/138 · 2.9%
Away/Away
9/215 · 4.2%
3/128 · 2.3%
Day/Day
10/171 · 5.8%
3/147 · 2.0%
Night/Night
8/266 · 3.0%
4/96 · 4.2%
vs L/vs L
6/106 · 5.7%
2/179 · 1.1%
vs R/vs R
12/331 · 3.6%
Avg0.2
HR2
G13
DateOppScoreABHHR
07/05/26
vs
W 6-4210
07/03/26
vs
L 1-17410
05/31/26
@
L 1-5400
05/29/26
@
L 5-6400
09/27/25
vs
W 7-3410
08/10/25
@
L 2-3300
08/09/25
@
W 9-1430
08/08/25
@
L 0-5410
07/05/25
vs
L 6-8521
07/04/25
vs
W 11-3411
06/26/25
@
W 3-0420
06/24/25
@
L 7-8100
06/23/25
@
L 2-8320
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Score Breakdown

Each factor is normalized 0–100 and weighted. Sum × weight = HR Score.

Batter HR Rate
Weight 25%
20/100
2.2% HR/PA on the season (6 HR in 275 PA)
Quality of Contact
Weight 20%
22/100
Barrel 4.4% • HardHit 37.6%
Pitcher HR Vulnerability
Weight 20%
52/100
1.64 HR/9 • 12.0% HR/FB (est.)
Handedness Edge
Weight 10%
63/100
Batter ISO vs LHP: .220 (96 PA)
Head-to-Head History
Weight 10%
50/100
No prior history
Park HR Factor
Weight 10%
35/100
Park index 100 (100 = league avg)
Recent Form (L15)
Weight 5%
44/100
2 HR in last 15 G (57 PA)

Batter Season

PA275
HR6
HR/PA2.2%
ISO.116
OPS0.722
Barrel%4.4%
HardHit%37.6%
Avg EV87.8 mph

Pitcher Season

IP99.0
ERA5.18
WHIP1.52
HR18
HR/91.64
K/98.64
BB/93.45
Barrel% Allowed6.4%
HardHit% Allowed43.0%

Head-to-Head

PA1
AB1
H0
HR0
BB0
K1
AVG.000
OPS0.000
Batter vs LHP this season
96 PA · 4 HR · 0.976 OPS